PoliticsDeveloping7 hr ago

Analyst shares text from unnamed GOP analyst on midterm election models

Coverage spectrum

Covered by 3 outlets, all left-leaning.

3 articles in total. The spectrum counts each outlet once and leaves opinion out. How we measure bias

The Daily Beast, The New Republic and Raw Story report that on Tuesday morning, Election Day for the midterms, Garrett Archer, a data analyst for ABC 15 Arizona and a former GOP strategist, shared a text from an unnamed GOP analyst. The text read: “God all my models are already projecting doom. And it’s 8am.” The outlets say it concerned Arizona races, where Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs is seeking a second term against Republican Rep. Andy Biggs. Raw Story cites a Noble Predictive Insights poll, released the week before, showing Hobbs leading 51% to 45% among likely voters. Archer shared the text without naming its author.

Headline and summary written by Mantle’s AI from the coverage below, under published rules. Editors read every story. How this works

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The coverage spectrum counts the outlets covering a story at each of five points. A short or missing segment means that part of the spectrum is mostly quiet.

Governor Loaded verb“slams”It adds drama to what was said. The governor criticized the lawmakers; “slams” makes it sound like a fight.More neutral: criticizes lawmakers over budget delay

Highlights mark words that carry a judgement. Tap one to see why, and what a neutral writer would say. Here it is “criticizes”.

The 5-point spectrum

Far Left
Voices that strongly advocate for progressive policies and systemic change.
Left
Mainstream liberal perspectives focusing on social equality and regulation.
Center
Sources that prioritize neutral reporting and balanced viewpoints.
Right
Mainstream conservative perspectives focusing on market freedom and tradition.
Far Right
Voices that strongly advocate for conservative values and limited government.

How we measure bias

What happened

Key points

Each point shows who reports it, from Far Left to Far Right.

An unnamed GOP analyst texted on Tuesday morning that his models were already projecting doom.
One side only: the leftReported byFar Left3See the outletsHide the outlets
Far Left
The Daily Beast, The New Republic, Raw Story
Garrett Archer, an ABC 15 Arizona data analyst and former GOP strategist, shared the text.
One side only: the leftReported byFar Left3See the outletsHide the outlets
Far Left
The Daily Beast, The New Republic, Raw Story
The text concerned Arizona races on the ballot Tuesday, including the race for governor.
One outletRaw Story· Far Left
A Noble Predictive Insights poll released last week found Democrat Katie Hobbs leading Andy Biggs 51% to 45%.
One outletRaw Story· Far Left

How each side tells it

Compare views

All three outlets report that Garrett Archer shared an unnamed GOP analyst’s text projecting doom for Republicans on election morning. Only the left is present, and it treats the text as evidence of Republican panic before the midterm results.

the left
3 outlets
Headlines cast the shared text as proof of Republican alarm, using words like panics, expose and disaster; all three outlets are Far Left, so no milder left voice appears in the sample.
Republican Loaded verb“Panics”Describes the analyst’s reaction as panic, a judgement of his state of mind that the text itself does not establish.More neutral: Republican Analyst Worries Over Own ProjectionsDisagree with this highlight? Over Own Projections in Swing State
The Daily BeastFar LeftAll left-leaning headlines
the center
No coverage yet
No center outlet that Mantle follows has covered this story yet. That absence is part of the picture.
the right
No coverage yet
No right-leaning outlet that Mantle follows has covered this story yet. That absence is part of the picture.

The words they chose

Language to notice

Words that carry a judgement beyond the facts. Tap a highlighted word anywhere on the page to see why.

Left5
disasterkowtowing to the president’s fragile egowildly unpopularExpose
Center
Has not covered this story.
Right
Has not covered this story.

In the outlets’ own words

Sensational language
disasterMore neutral: major losses
Presents the expected election outcome as a catastrophe before results are in.
'Projecting doom': Leaked text shows swing state Republicans bracing for disaster
Used byRaw Story (Far Left)The New Republic (Far Left)
Loaded verb
kowtowing to the president’s fragile egoMore neutral: aligning with the president
Characterizes candidates’ conduct with a demeaning judgement of their motives.
…as their candidates were forced to thread the needle between kowtowing to the president’s fragile ego and distancing themselves from his wildly unpopular military and…
Used byThe New Republic (Far Left)
Loaded modifier
wildly unpopularMore neutral: unpopular in some polls
Attaches a strong negative label to the president’s policies without citing a poll.
…kowtowing to the president’s fragile ego and distancing themselves from his wildly unpopular military and economic policies.
Used byThe New Republic (Far Left)
Loaded verb
ExposeMore neutral: Shared Texts Show
Frames the texts as a revelation of wrongdoing, though they are a shared private message.
Leaked Texts Expose GOP in Key Swing State Bracing for Disaster
Used byThe New Republic (Far Left)

Show 1 more phrasesShow fewer

Loaded verb
PanicsMore neutral: Republican Analyst Worries Over Own Projections
Describes the analyst’s reaction as panic, a judgement of his state of mind that the text itself does not establish.
Republican Panics Over Own Projections in Swing State
Used byThe Daily Beast (Far Left)

See the full language guide

See for yourself

Side by side

What each side leads with and what it leaves out. Open a side to read its headlines.

From the left

3 outlets

Leads with

GOP alarm over its own forecasts
the unnamed analyst’s text
Arizona races on Election Day

See the 3 headlines from the leftHide the headlines

The Daily BeastFar Left
Republican Loaded verb“Panics”Describes the analyst’s reaction as panic, a judgement of his state of mind that the text itself does not establish.More neutral: Republican Analyst Worries Over Own ProjectionsDisagree with this highlight? Over Own Projections in Swing State
One GOP analyst started Election Day with a sinking feeling after checking his own forecast for the party. Garrett Archer , a political analyst for ABC 15 Arizona and a former GOP strategist, shared a text sent to him by a “fellow analyst on the GOP side” on Tuesday morning. …
4 hr agoRead at The Daily Beast (opens in a new tab)
The New RepublicFar Left
Leaked Texts Loaded verb“Expose”Frames the texts as a revelation of wrongdoing, though they are a shared private message.More neutral: Shared Texts ShowDisagree with this highlight? GOP in Key Swing State Bracing for Sensational language“Disaster”Presents the expected election outcome as a catastrophe before results are in.More neutral: Major LossesDisagree with this highlight?
Midterm election predictions are not looking good for Republicans in battleground states. Garrett Archer, a data analyst for an Arizona ABC News affiliate, shared messages Tuesday from an unnamed GOP analyst that don’t bode well for their party. …
5 hr agoRead at The New Republic (opens in a new tab)
Raw StoryFar Left
'Projecting doom': Leaked text shows swing state Republicans bracing for Sensational language“disaster”Presents the expected election outcome as a catastrophe before results are in.More neutral: major lossesDisagree with this highlight?
A GOP political analyst sounded the alarm Tuesday morning just as voters started heading to the polls for the midterms, warning that their own election models were projecting a dire outcome for Republicans. “God all my models are already projecting doom. …
7 hr agoRead at Raw Story (opens in a new tab)

From the center

0 outlets

No center outlet that Mantle follows has covered this story yet. That absence is part of the picture.

From the right

0 outlets

No right-leaning outlet that Mantle follows has covered this story yet. That absence is part of the picture.

The stories you read build My Mix, a private picture of which sides cover the stories you choose, kept on this device. What is My Mix?

The left is Far Left and Left together. The right is Right and Far Right together. Every outlet keeps its own five-point rating.

Who reported it when

How the coverage built up

Left
First to report
Raw Story, Nov 3, 2:12 PM EST
Center
No report yet
From the outlets Mantle follows
Right
No report yet
From the outlets Mantle follows

See the order the outlets reported inHide the order

Raw StoryFar LeftNov 3, 2:12 PM EST
The New RepublicFar LeftNov 3, 4:16 PM EST
The Daily BeastFar LeftNov 3, 4:40 PM EST

Times are the ones the outlets published in their own feeds, in Eastern time. Opinion is left out.

Analyst shares text from unnamed GOP analyst on midterm election models

Coverage spectrum

Key points

Compare views

the left

the center

the right

Language to notice

In the outlets’ own words

Side by side

From the left

Republican Loaded verb“Panics”Describes the analyst’s reaction as panic, a judgement of his state of mind that the text itself does not establish.More neutral: Republican Analyst Worries Over Own ProjectionsDisagree with this highlight? Over Own Projections in Swing State

'Projecting doom': Leaked text shows swing state Republicans bracing for Sensational language“disaster”Presents the expected election outcome as a catastrophe before results are in.More neutral: major lossesDisagree with this highlight?

From the center

From the right

How the coverage built up

Read next

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Democrats take House control in midterms, Decision Desk HQ projects

AP and CBS project Democrat Jon Ossoff wins Georgia Senate race over Mike Collins

Ballot scanners at Westchester County polling sites fail on Election Day

Trump says he would offer preemptive pardons to aides if Democrats win Congress

Key points

Compare views

the left

the center

the right

Language to notice

In the outlets’ own words

Side by side

From the left

Republican PanicsLoaded verb“Panics”Describes the analyst’s reaction as panic, a judgement of his state of mind that the text itself does not establish.More neutral: Republican Analyst Worries Over Own ProjectionsDisagree with this highlight? Over Own Projections in Swing State

'Projecting doom': Leaked text shows swing state Republicans bracing for disasterSensational language“disaster”Presents the expected election outcome as a catastrophe before results are in.More neutral: major lossesDisagree with this highlight?

From the center

From the right

How the coverage built up

Read next

Democrat Zach Dembo projected to win Kentucky House seat, Decision Desk HQ says

Democrats take House control in midterms, Decision Desk HQ projects

AP and CBS project Democrat Jon Ossoff wins Georgia Senate race over Mike Collins

Ballot scanners at Westchester County polling sites fail on Election Day

Trump says he would offer preemptive pardons to aides if Democrats win Congress

Republican Loaded verb“Panics”Describes the analyst’s reaction as panic, a judgement of his state of mind that the text itself does not establish.More neutral: Republican Analyst Worries Over Own ProjectionsDisagree with this highlight? Over Own Projections in Swing State

'Projecting doom': Leaked text shows swing state Republicans bracing for Sensational language“disaster”Presents the expected election outcome as a catastrophe before results are in.More neutral: major lossesDisagree with this highlight?