EconomyDevelopingUpdated Oct 13, 2026

IMF forecasts Middle East economies to shrink in 2026 amid war involving Iran

Coverage spectrum

Covered by 3 outlets, mostly left-leaning (67%).

3 articles in total. The spectrum counts each outlet once and leaves opinion out. How we measure bias

The International Monetary Fund's latest economic outlook, as reported by The New York Times, Al Jazeera English and Semafor, forecasts slower global growth and higher prices in 2026, with Middle Eastern economies among the hardest hit. Al Jazeera reports that the IMF expects the Middle East and Central Asia economy to contract 0.3 percent this year, down from the 1.9 percent expansion projected in April, and cites prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Semafor reports that the Middle East and North Africa is the only region the IMF expects to shrink in 2026. The IMF expects a strong rebound next year only if the strait gradually reopens, a date it has already pushed back.

Headline and summary written by Mantle’s AI from the coverage below, under published rules. How this works

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The coverage spectrum counts the outlets covering a story at each of five points. A short or missing segment means that part of the spectrum is mostly quiet.

Governor Loaded verb“slams”It adds drama to what was said. The governor criticized the lawmakers; “slams” makes it sound like a fight.More neutral: criticizes lawmakers over budget delay

Highlights mark words that carry a judgement. Tap one to see why, and what a neutral writer would say. Here it is “criticizes”.

The 5-point spectrum

Far Left
Voices that strongly advocate for progressive policies and systemic change.
Left
Mainstream liberal perspectives focusing on social equality and regulation.
Center
Sources that prioritize neutral reporting and balanced viewpoints.
Right
Mainstream conservative perspectives focusing on market freedom and tradition.
Far Right
Voices that strongly advocate for conservative values and limited government.

How we measure bias

What happened

Key points

Each point shows who reports it, from Far Left to Far Right.

The IMF forecasts that the Middle East and Central Asia economy will contract 0.3 percent in 2026.
One outletAl Jazeera English· Left
The IMF forecasts that the Middle East and North Africa will be the only region of the world to shrink in 2026.
One outletSemafor· Center
The IMF cites prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz for the downgraded outlook.
One outletAl Jazeera English· Left
The IMF says a strong rebound next year depends on the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopening.
Reported byLeft1Center1See the outletsHide the outlets
Left
Al Jazeera English
Center
Semafor
The IMF says persistent conflicts, high energy costs and technological upheavals will slow global growth and raise prices.
One outletThe New York Times· Left

What is contested

Where accounts differ

Points the coverage does not agree on, and who says what.

Which region is expected to shrink in 2026.
Al Jazeera English reports the Middle East and Central Asia economy will contract, while Semafor reports the Middle East and North Africa is the only region expected to shrink. The outlets name the region differently.

How each side tells it

Compare views

The IMF has cut its 2026 outlook, with Middle East economies set to shrink amid the war on Iran and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Left outlets stress the global widening gap and higher prices; Semafor stresses the Gulf cuts against April forecasts.

the left
2 outlets
Left headlines tie the economic forecast to the war: Al Jazeera says Middle East economies shrink amid war, while the New York Times warns the conflicts will widen the gap between rich and poor countries.
Middle East and Central Asia’s economy to shrink in 2026 amid war, IMF says
Al Jazeera EnglishLeftAll left-leaning headlines
the center
1 outlet
Semafor's headline reports the IMF cutting Gulf growth forecasts and stresses that the region is the only one expected to shrink, comparing the new numbers with the April forecast.
The IMF cuts its 2026 growth forecasts across the Gulf
SemaforCenterAll center headlines
the right
No coverage yet
No right-leaning outlet that Mantle follows has covered this story yet. That absence is part of the picture.

The words they chose

Language to notice

Words that carry a judgement beyond the facts. Tap a highlighted word anywhere on the page to see why.

Mantle found no loaded language in this coverage. Every headline and opening was checked against Mantle’s published word list, and Mantle’s AI read all 3 articles in context. Straight reporting often has none.

See for yourself

Side by side

What each side leads with and what it leaves out. Open a side to read its headlines.

From the left

2 outlets

Leads with

war as the cause of the economic slowdown
widening gap between rich and poor countries
high energy costs and rising prices

See the 2 headlines from the leftHide the headlines

Al Jazeera EnglishLeft
Middle East and Central Asia’s economy to shrink in 2026 amid war, IMF says
Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar face double-digit declines in GDP amid the fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran.
Oct 13, 2026Read at Al Jazeera English (opens in a new tab)
The New York TimesLeft
I.M.F. Warns Mideast War Will Widen Gap Between Rich and Poor Countries
Persistent conflicts, high energy costs and technological upheavals will slow global growth and raise prices, the organization forecast.
Oct 12, 2026Read at The New York Times (opens in a new tab)

From the center

1 outlet

Leads with

Gulf growth forecasts cut since April
Middle East the only region expected to shrink
timing of the Strait of Hormuz reopening

Leaves out

global growth slowdown and higher prices forecast by the IMF
widening gap between rich and poor countries

Reported by other sides, not found in this side’s coverage.

See the headline from the centerHide the headlines

SemaforCenter
The IMF cuts its 2026 growth forecasts across the Gulf
The Middle East and North Africa is now expected to be the only region to shrink this year. In April, the IMF forecast Saudi Arabia and the UAE would grow.
Oct 13, 2026Read at Semafor (opens in a new tab)

From the right

0 outlets

No right-leaning outlet that Mantle follows has covered this story yet. That absence is part of the picture.

Articles you open from here build My Mix, a private picture of how your reading spreads across the spectrum, kept on this device. What is My Mix?

The left is Far Left and Left together. The right is Right and Far Right together. Every outlet keeps its own five-point rating.

Who reported it when

How the coverage built up

Left
First to report
The New York Times, Oct 12, 10:00 PM EDT
Center
10 hr 51 min later
Its first report, Oct 13, 8:50 AM EDT
Right
No report yet
From the outlets Mantle follows

See the order the outlets reported inHide the order

The New York TimesLeftOct 12, 10:00 PM EDT
Al Jazeera EnglishLeftOct 13, 1:59 AM EDT
SemaforCenterOct 13, 8:50 AM EDT

Times are the ones the outlets published in their own feeds, in Eastern time. Opinion is left out.

IMF forecasts Middle East economies to shrink in 2026 amid war involving Iran

Coverage spectrum

Key points

Where accounts differ

Compare views

the left

the center

the right

Language to notice

Side by side

From the left

Middle East and Central Asia’s economy to shrink in 2026 amid war, IMF says

I.M.F. Warns Mideast War Will Widen Gap Between Rich and Poor Countries

From the center

The IMF cuts its 2026 growth forecasts across the Gulf

From the right

How the coverage built up

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