PoliticsAnalysisUpdated 2 hr ago

Nate Silver’s forecast gives Democrats 80% chance of Senate control in midterms

Coverage spectrum

Covered by 3 outlets, mostly left-leaning (67%).

3 articles in total. The spectrum counts each outlet once and leaves opinion out. How we measure bias

Image via The HillHow images are chosen Report this image

Election forecaster Nate Silver says his FLIPR model now gives Democrats an 80 percent chance of winning control of the U.S. Senate in Tuesday’s midterm elections. He made the call in a Silver Bulletin post after the latest New York Times/Siena polls, which he described as showing fantastic numbers for Democrats in nearly every Senate battleground. The Daily Beast and Raw Story report the forecast, while The Hill reports Silver’s prediction of a “blue tsunami.” Silver said the polls might be wrong.

Headline and summary written by Mantle’s AI from the coverage below, under published rules. Editors read every story. How this works

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The coverage spectrum counts the outlets covering a story at each of five points. A short or missing segment means that part of the spectrum is mostly quiet.

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The 5-point spectrum

Far Left
Voices that strongly advocate for progressive policies and systemic change.
Left
Mainstream liberal perspectives focusing on social equality and regulation.
Center
Sources that prioritize neutral reporting and balanced viewpoints.
Right
Mainstream conservative perspectives focusing on market freedom and tradition.
Far Right
Voices that strongly advocate for conservative values and limited government.

How we measure bias

What happened

Key points

Each point shows who reports it, from Far Left to Far Right.

Nate Silver says his FLIPR model gives Democrats an 80 percent chance of winning Senate control in Tuesday’s midterms.
One side only: the leftReported byFar Left2See the outletsHide the outlets
Far Left
The Daily Beast, Raw Story
Silver said the latest New York Times/Siena polls showed fantastic numbers for Democrats across nearly every Senate battleground.
Reported byFar Left1Center1See the outletsHide the outlets
Far Left
The Daily Beast
Center
The Hill
Silver predicted that a “blue tsunami” is on the horizon for Democrats.
Reported byFar Left1Center1See the outletsHide the outlets
Far Left
The Daily Beast
Center
The Hill
The Times/Siena polls show Democrats leading in Senate races in Michigan, Texas, Maine, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska and Iowa.
One outletRaw Story· Far Left

How each side tells it

Compare views

Every side present reports that Nate Silver sees Democrats well placed for the Senate after the latest New York Times/Siena polls. Left coverage stresses his 80 percent forecast of Senate control, while The Hill centers on his blue tsunami prediction and the polling.

the left
2 outlets
Left headlines lead with Silver’s forecast as a huge call or major swing, and Raw Story calls him legendary, presenting his model as authoritative.
Nate Silver Makes Sensational language“Huge”The word adds drama to a routine election forecast update without adding facts.More neutral: Senate forecastDisagree with this highlight? Senate Call on Eve of Election
The Daily BeastFar LeftAll left-leaning headlines
the center
1 outlet
The Hill frames the story as Silver predicting a blue tsunami from fantastic Democratic polling, quoting him rather than presenting the forecast as a headline call.
Nate Silver: Latest pre-election polling shows 'blue tsunami' on horizon
The HillCenterAll center headlines
the right
No coverage yet
No right-leaning outlet that Mantle follows has covered this story yet. That absence is part of the picture.

The words they chose

Language to notice

Words that carry a judgement beyond the facts. Tap a highlighted word anywhere on the page to see why.

Left1
Huge
Center0
No loaded words in its own voice.
Right
Has not covered this story.

In the outlets’ own words

Sensational language
HugeMore neutral: Senate forecast
The word adds drama to a routine election forecast update without adding facts.
Nate Silver Makes Huge Senate Call on Eve of Election
Used byThe Daily Beast (Far Left)

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See for yourself

Side by side

What each side leads with and what it leaves out. Open a side to read its headlines.

From the left

2 outlets

Leads with

Silver’s 80 percent Senate forecast
Democratic poll leads in Senate races
Forecast presented as a major turn

See the 2 headlines from the leftHide the headlines

Raw StoryFar Left
Legendary pollster sees major swing in final midterm prediction
Legendary election forecaster Nate Silver says Democrats now have an 80 percent chance of taking a majority in the U.S. Senate in Tuesday’s midterms, according to his forecast and new New York Times/Siena polling, the Daily Beast reported on Monday. …
6 hr agoRead at Raw Story (opens in a new tab)
The Daily BeastFar Left
Nate Silver Makes Sensational language“Huge”The word adds drama to a routine election forecast update without adding facts.More neutral: Senate forecastDisagree with this highlight? Senate Call on Eve of Election
Polling expert Nate Silver says the Democrats have an 8-in-10 chance of flipping the Senate in the midterms after the latest polls showing “fantastic” numbers for the party. …
8 hr agoRead at The Daily Beast (opens in a new tab)

From the center

1 outlet

Leads with

Silver’s blue tsunami prediction
Democratic leads in Senate battlegrounds
New York Times/Siena final polls

See the headline from the centerHide the headlines

The HillCenter
Nate Silver: Latest pre-election polling shows 'blue tsunami' on horizon
Political analyst Nate Silver predicted Sunday that a "blue tsunami" is on the horizon. “NYT/Siena released their presumably final set of polls this evening, and they showed what can only be described as fantastic numbers for Democrats, putting them ahead — sometimes narrowly, …
2 hr agoRead at The Hill (opens in a new tab)

From the right

0 outlets

No right-leaning outlet that Mantle follows has covered this story yet. That absence is part of the picture.

The stories you read build My Mix, a private picture of which sides cover the stories you choose, kept on this device. What is My Mix?

The left is Far Left and Left together. The right is Right and Far Right together. Every outlet keeps its own five-point rating.

Who reported it when

How the coverage built up

Left
First to report
The Daily Beast, Nov 2, 5:30 AM EST
Center
5 hr 32 min later
Its first report, Nov 2, 11:01 AM EST
Right
No report yet
From the outlets Mantle follows

See the order the outlets reported inHide the order

The Daily BeastFar LeftNov 2, 5:30 AM EST
Raw StoryFar LeftNov 2, 7:29 AM EST
The HillCenterNov 2, 11:01 AM EST

Times are the ones the outlets published in their own feeds, in Eastern time. Opinion is left out.

Nate Silver’s forecast gives Democrats 80% chance of Senate control in midterms

Coverage spectrum

Key points

Compare views

the left

the center

the right

Language to notice

In the outlets’ own words

Side by side

From the left

Legendary pollster sees major swing in final midterm prediction

Nate Silver Makes Sensational language“Huge”The word adds drama to a routine election forecast update without adding facts.More neutral: Senate forecastDisagree with this highlight? Senate Call on Eve of Election

From the center

Nate Silver: Latest pre-election polling shows 'blue tsunami' on horizon

From the right

How the coverage built up

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Key points

Compare views

the left

the center

the right

Language to notice

In the outlets’ own words

Side by side

From the left

Legendary pollster sees major swing in final midterm prediction

Nate Silver Makes HugeSensational language“Huge”The word adds drama to a routine election forecast update without adding facts.More neutral: Senate forecastDisagree with this highlight? Senate Call on Eve of Election

From the center

Nate Silver: Latest pre-election polling shows 'blue tsunami' on horizon

From the right

How the coverage built up

Read next

Labour ends council power-sharing with Greens over party’s Zionism policy

Rep. Haley Stevens endorses Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan Senate race

Judge dismisses complaint against two former FBI officials accused of lying to Congress

Judge dismisses Justice Department suit to delay Alaska Senate certification

G20 ministers drop group photo after European officials refuse to pose with Lavrov

Nate Silver Makes Sensational language“Huge”The word adds drama to a routine election forecast update without adding facts.More neutral: Senate forecastDisagree with this highlight? Senate Call on Eve of Election