Nate Silver's model gives Democrats a 75% chance of winning the Senate in midterms
By Mantle News
Coverage spectrum
Covered by 3 outlets, mostly right-leaning (67%).
3 articles in total. The spectrum counts each outlet once and leaves opinion out. How we measure bias
Election forecaster Nate Silver has updated his model, published in his Silver Bulletin newsletter, to give Democrats a 75 percent chance of winning the Senate in the November 3 midterms. The Daily Mail and New York Post also report that the model gives Democrats a 94 percent chance of winning the House. The Daily Mail says the Senate chance was 50 percent and the House chance 81 percent in early September. The Daily Beast says Republicans currently hold a Senate majority. The Daily Mail notes the figures are model-based probabilities, not poll results, and do not guarantee a result.
Headline and summary written by Mantle’s AI from the coverage below, under published rules. How this works
What happened
Key points
Each point shows who reports it, from Far Left to Far Right.
Nate Silver's updated model gives Democrats a 75 percent chance of winning the Senate in the November 3 midterms.
Reported byFar Left1Right2See the outletsHide the outlets
- Far Left
- The Daily Beast
- Right
- Daily Mail, New York Post
Silver's model gives Democrats a 94 percent chance of winning the House.
One side only: the rightReported byRight2See the outletsHide the outlets
- Right
- Daily Mail, New York Post
Republicans currently hold majorities in Congress, and are defending them in the midterms.
Reported byFar Left1Right1See the outletsHide the outlets
- Far Left
- The Daily Beast
- Right
- Daily Mail
Silver's model raised Democrats' Senate chance from 50 percent in early September, according to the Daily Mail.
One outletDaily Mail· Right
The model's figures are probabilities, not poll results, and do not guarantee that Democrats will win either chamber.
One outletDaily Mail· Right
How each side tells it
Compare views
All three outlets report that Nate Silver's model gives Democrats a 75 percent chance of winning the Senate in November. The main difference is emphasis: the Daily Beast reports the Senate figure alone, while both right-side outlets add the 94 percent House chance and more dramatic wording.
the left
1 outlet
The Daily Beast's headline calls Silver's update a bold call on the Senate and leaves out the House forecast.
Nate Silver Makes Sensational language“Bold Call”Calling the forecast a bold call adds a judgement about the prediction that the figures alone do not establish.More neutral: new forecastDisagree with this highlight? on Democrats’ Senate Chances
The Daily BeastFar LeftAll left-leaning headlines the center
No coverage yet
No center outlet that Mantle follows has covered this story yet. That absence is part of the picture.
the right
2 outlets
Both right-side headlines lead with Silver's forecast: the Daily Mail calls it “extreme” and him “Election nostradamus”, while the New York Post says it is better for Dems than people think.
Sensational language“Election nostradamus”Comparing a forecaster to a prophet implies certainty that a probability model does not claim.More neutral: election forecasterDisagree with this highlight? Nate Silver makes Sensational language“extreme prediction”Calling the forecast extreme adds a judgement about the figures, which are stated as ordinary model probabilities.More neutral: new predictionDisagree with this highlight? about Democrats' chance to cinch power in the midterms
Daily MailRightAll right-leaning headlines
The words they chose
Language to notice
Words that carry a judgement beyond the facts. Tap a highlighted word anywhere on the page to see why.
Left1
Bold Call
Center
Has not covered this story.
Right5
seizing controlElection nostradamusextreme predictionwhopping
In the outlets’ own words
Sensational language
Bold CallMore neutral: new forecast
Calling the forecast a bold call adds a judgement about the prediction that the figures alone do not establish.
Nate Silver Makes Bold Call on Democrats’ Senate Chances
Used byThe Daily Beast (Far Left)
Loaded verb
seizing controlMore neutral: winning control
Seizing implies taking control by force, while the article describes a possible electoral win.
…forecaster Nate Silver has made a fresh prediction about Democrats' chances of seizing control of Congress.
Used byDaily Mail (Right)
Sensational language
Election nostradamusMore neutral: election forecaster
Comparing a forecaster to a prophet implies certainty that a probability model does not claim.
Election nostradamus Nate Silver makes extreme prediction about Democrats' chance to cinch power in…
Used byDaily Mail (Right)
Sensational language
extreme predictionMore neutral: new prediction
Calling the forecast extreme adds a judgement about the figures, which are stated as ordinary model probabilities.
Election nostradamus Nate Silver makes extreme prediction about Democrats' chance to cinch power in the midterms
Used byDaily Mail (Right)
Show 2 more phrasesShow fewer
Sensational language
whoppingMore neutral: 94%
The adjective adds emphasis to a model probability without adding information.
Famed polling expert Nate Silver, who is giving Democrats a whopping 94% chance of reclaiming the House, also predicts there is a 75% chance they will…
Used byNew York Post (Right)
Loaded verb
claimsMore neutral: says
Claims suggests doubt about a forecast that the article presents as a model result.
‘Silver Bulletin’ pollster claims midterm election news is even better for Dems than people think
Used byNew York Post (Right)
See for yourself
Side by side
What each side leads with and what it leaves out. Open a side to read its headlines.
From the left
1 outletLeads with
- Silver's upgraded Senate forecast
- Democrats could take control through battleground wins
- Republicans' current majority
Leaves out
- the 94 percent House forecast
Reported by other sides, not found in this side’s coverage.
See the headline from the leftHide the headlines
- The Daily BeastFar Left
Nate Silver Makes Sensational language“Bold Call”Calling the forecast a bold call adds a judgement about the prediction that the figures alone do not establish.More neutral: new forecastDisagree with this highlight? on Democrats’ Senate Chances
Polling guru Nate Silver has raised Democrats’ likelihood of sweeping in the upcoming midterm elections. The FiveThirtyEight founder has upgraded the party’s chances of winning the Senate to 75 percent. …
From the center
0 outletsNo center outlet that Mantle follows has covered this story yet. That absence is part of the picture.
From the right
2 outletsLeads with
- House and Senate flipping together
- Silver's boldness and record
- Democrats' better-than-expected chances
See the 2 headlines from the rightHide the headlines
- New York PostRight
‘Silver Bulletin’ pollster Loaded verb“claims”Claims suggests doubt about a forecast that the article presents as a model result.More neutral: saysDisagree with this highlight? midterm election news is even better for Dems than people think
With about two weeks left until Election Day, the leading forecasters are dubbing the Democrats as the frontrunners to take control of the upper chamber on Nov. 3.
- Daily MailRight
Sensational language“Election nostradamus”Comparing a forecaster to a prophet implies certainty that a probability model does not claim.More neutral: election forecasterDisagree with this highlight? Nate Silver makes Sensational language“extreme prediction”Calling the forecast extreme adds a judgement about the figures, which are stated as ordinary model probabilities.More neutral: new predictionDisagree with this highlight? about Democrats' chance to cinch power in the midterms
Election forecaster Nate Silver has made a fresh prediction about Democrats' chances of Loaded verb“seizing control”Seizing implies taking control by force, while the article describes a possible electoral win.More neutral: winning controlDisagree with this highlight? of Congress.
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The left is Far Left and Left together. The right is Right and Far Right together. Every outlet keeps its own five-point rating.
Who reported it when
How the coverage built up
Left
First to report
The Daily Beast, Oct 19, 12:07 PM EDT
Center
No report yet
From the outlets Mantle follows
Right
5 hr 57 min later
Its first report, Oct 19, 6:04 PM EDT
See the order the outlets reported inHide the order
- The Daily BeastFar LeftOct 19, 12:07 PM EDT
- Daily MailRightOct 19, 6:04 PM EDT
- New York PostRightOct 20, 4:47 PM EDT
Times are the ones the outlets published in their own feeds, in Eastern time. Opinion is left out.
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