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Polls Show Brazil Runoff Candidates Bolsonaro and Lula Near Even Before Sunday Vote

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Coverage spectrum

Covered by 3 outlets, mostly left-leaning (67%).

5 articles in total. The spectrum counts each outlet once and leaves opinion out. How we measure bias

Polls published ahead of Brazil's runoff election on Sunday, October 25, show the two candidates, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, close. Bloomberg reports a tie in a Datafolha poll. Al Jazeera reports a CNT/MDA poll giving Bolsonaro 46.3 percent and Lula 45 percent, within a margin of error of 2.2 points. Breitbart reports that Bolsonaro leads in 15 of 17 polls compiled by Poder 360 and that most gaps fall within the margin of error. Bloomberg reports that Bolsonaro's allies played down the Datafolha result while acknowledging the race had tightened.

Headline and summary written by Mantle’s AI from the coverage below, under published rules. How this works

What happened

Key points

Each point shows who reports it, from Far Left to Far Right.

  1. The runoff between Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is set for Sunday, October 25.

    Reported byLeft2Far Right1See the outletsHide the outlets
    Left
    Bloomberg, Al Jazeera English
    Far Right
    Breitbart News

  2. A Datafolha poll showed the two candidates tied.

    Reported byLeft1Far Right1See the outletsHide the outlets
    Left
    Bloomberg
    Far Right
    Breitbart News

  3. A CNT/MDA poll released Saturday gave Bolsonaro 46.3 percent and Lula 45 percent, with a margin of error of 2.2 points.

    One outletAl Jazeera English· Left

  4. A Poder 360 summary of 17 recent polls showed Bolsonaro numerically ahead in 15 of them.

    One outletBreitbart News· Far Right

  5. Bolsonaro's allies played down the Datafolha tie but acknowledged the race had tightened.

    One outletBloomberg· Left

What is contested

Where accounts differ

Points the coverage does not agree on, and who says what.

  • Who leads in the polls before the runoff

    Bloomberg and Al Jazeera report the candidates tied or about even. Breitbart reports Bolsonaro ahead in 15 of 17 polls. Breitbart also notes the gaps fall within the margin of error.

How each side tells it

Compare views

Every side reports that recent polls show Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula close ahead of the October 25 runoff, tied or within the margin of error. Left outlets stress a tied race and Lula's mobilization, while Breitbart leads with Bolsonaro ahead in most polls and calls Lula socialist.

  • the left

    2 outlets

    Headlines present the race as tied or even, framed by poll results and a tightening race, with few ideological labels.

    Bolsonaro and Lula Tied Ahead of Brazil Runoff, Poll Shows
    BloombergLeftAll left-leaning headlines

  • the center

    No coverage yet

    No center outlet that Mantle follows has covered this story yet. That absence is part of the picture.

  • the right

    1 outlet

    Only Breitbart, rated Far Right, covers this side here; its headline puts Bolsonaro ahead in most polls and calls Lula socialist.

    Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro Ahead of Loaded modifier“Socialist”Calling Lula socialist attaches an ideological label to him that pre-judges his politics, while the other outlets identify him only by office and name.More neutral: President Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaDisagree with this highlight? Lula in Most Polls Hours Before Runoff
    Breitbart NewsFar RightAll right-leaning headlines

The words they chose

Language to notice

Words that carry a judgement beyond the facts. Tap a highlighted word anywhere on the page to see why.

  • Left0

    No loaded words in its own voice.

  • Center

    Has not covered this story.

  • Right1

    socialist

In the outlets’ own words

  • Loaded modifier

    socialistMore neutral: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

    Calling Lula socialist attaches an ideological label to him that pre-judges his politics, while the other outlets identify him only by office and name.

    Flávio Bolsonaro is ahead of socialist President Lula da Silva.

    Used byBreitbart News (Far Right)

See the full language guide

See for yourself

Side by side

What each side leads with and what it leaves out. Open a side to read its headlines.

From the left

2 outlets

Leads with

  • tied polls
  • tightening race
  • Lula's mobilization of voters
  • Bolsonaro allies downplaying the result

Leaves out

  • Poder 360 tally of 17 polls showing Bolsonaro ahead in most

Reported by other sides, not found in this side’s coverage.

See the 2 headlines from the leftHide the headlines

From the center

0 outlets

No center outlet that Mantle follows has covered this story yet. That absence is part of the picture.

From the right

1 outlet

Leads with

  • Bolsonaro leading most polls
  • Poder 360 count of 17 surveys
  • ideological labels for both candidates
See the headline from the rightHide the headlines
  • Breitbart NewsFar Right

    Brazil: Flavio Bolsonaro Ahead of Loaded modifier“Socialist”Calling Lula socialist attaches an ideological label to him that pre-judges his politics, while the other outlets identify him only by office and name.More neutral: President Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaDisagree with this highlight? Lula in Most Polls Hours Before Runoff

    An overwhelming majority of polls in Brazil indicate that conservative Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro is ahead of Loaded modifier“socialist”Calling Lula socialist attaches an ideological label to him that pre-judges his politics, while the other outlets identify him only by office and name.More neutral: President Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaDisagree with this highlight? President Lula da Silva.

    Read at Breitbart News (opens in a new tab)

Articles you open from here build My Mix, a private picture of how your reading spreads across the spectrum, kept on this device. What is My Mix?

The left is Far Left and Left together. The right is Right and Far Right together. Every outlet keeps its own five-point rating.

Who reported it when

How the coverage built up

  • Left

    First to report

    Bloomberg, Oct 22, 6:13 PM EDT

  • Center

    No report yet

    From the outlets Mantle follows

  • Right

    20 hr 57 min later

    Its first report, Oct 23, 3:10 PM EDT

See the order the outlets reported inHide the order
  1. BloombergLeftOct 22, 6:13 PM EDT
  2. Breitbart NewsFar RightOct 23, 3:10 PM EDT
  3. Al Jazeera EnglishLeftOct 24, 11:36 AM EDT

Times are the ones the outlets published in their own feeds, in Eastern time. Opinion is left out.

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