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PCE inflation data for August comes in below economists’ expectations

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Coverage spectrum

Covered by 13 outlets across the spectrum.

16 articles in total. The spectrum counts each outlet once and leaves opinion out. How we measure bias

The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3% from July to August and 3.4% from a year earlier. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% monthly and 3.0% annually. Both figures came in below the Dow Jones consensus forecasts of 0.3%/3.7% headline and 0.3%/3.3% core. The Bureau of Economic Analysis also revised how it calculates several components of the index, and it was not immediately clear how much the change affected the results. Traders lowered their expectations for an October rate increase, with odds falling to about 35% from roughly 45%. Some reports noted that consumer spending rose even as price gains remained elevated.

Headline and summary written by Mantle’s AI from the coverage below, under published rules. How this works

What happened

Key points

Each point shows who reports it, from Far Left to Far Right.

  1. Headline PCE rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year in August

    Reported byLeftCenterRight

  2. Core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year

    Reported byLeftCenterRight

  3. Both figures were below economists’ forecasts of 0.3%/3.7% headline and 0.3%/3.3% core

    Reported byLeftCenterRight

  4. The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised its methodology for several components of the index, and the effect of the revision on the figures was unclear

    Reported byLeftRight

  5. Traders reduced their odds of an October Fed rate hike to about 35%, down from roughly 45%

    Reported byLeftCenterRight

  6. Consumer spending rose even as price gains remained elevated, posing a challenge for voters ahead of the midterm elections

    Reported byLeft

What is contested

Where accounts differ

Points the coverage does not agree on, and who says what.

  • Whether the August data represents meaningful easing of inflation or merely continued price pressure

    Most outlets across the spectrum characterize the data as ‘cooler than expected’ and a positive sign for markets and the Fed, while the New York Times frames the same data as showing inflation ‘points to continued price pressures,’ noting little underlying improvement despite the downward revision.

  • How much of the lower reading reflects genuine price softening versus a BEA methodology change

    The New York Times and New York Post both note that the Bureau of Economic Analysis adjusted how it computes certain components (legal services, software, portfolio management), and that it is unclear how much of the decline in the monthly figures stems from this technical change rather than actual easing of inflation.

How each side tells it

Compare views

  • the left

    4 outlets

    Most left-leaning outlets frame the data through its market and political effects—falling rate-hike bets, consumer spending, and midterm stakes—while the New York Times’ own report instead stresses that price pressures persisted despite the lower numbers.

    Absolutist framing“Good news in US inflation report”Characterizing the data as unambiguously ‘good news’ presents a subjective interpretation as settled fact, when inflation remains well above the Fed’s target.More neutral: Softer inflation reportDisagree with this highlight? boosts chances Fed won’t hike rates
    The GuardianLeftAll left-leaning headlines

  • the center

    4 outlets

    Center outlets report the inflation figures straightforwardly, focusing on the numbers versus forecasts and the implications for Fed policy, with one outlet also noting the data’s limited scope on food and fuel costs.

    Why you may not be feeling the good news from the latest inflation report
    Straight Arrow NewsCenterAll center headlines

  • the right

    5 outlets

    Right-leaning outlets emphasize that inflation came in cooler than expected and that this eases pressure on the Fed, with some outlets tying the news explicitly to reduced political pressure on the Trump administration.

    Fed’s preferred inflation gauge cooler than expected, likely delaying rate hike to December
    New York PostRightAll right-leaning headlines

The words they chose

Language to notice

Words that carry a judgement beyond the facts. Tap a highlighted word anywhere on the page to see why.

  • Left1

    Good news in US inflation report

  • Center0

    No loaded words in its own voice.

  • Right1

    Much Lower Than Expected

In the outlets’ own words

  • Sensational language

    Much Lower Than ExpectedMore neutral: Lower Than Expected

    The actual gap between the forecast (0.4%/3.7%) and the reported figures (0.3%/3.4%) is modest, so characterizing it as ‘much’ lower overstates the size of the difference.

    Fed's Preferred Inflation Measure Comes in Much Lower Than Expected

    Used byBreitbart News (Far Right)

  • Absolutist framing

    Good news in US inflation reportMore neutral: Softer inflation report

    Characterizing the data as unambiguously ‘good news’ presents a subjective interpretation as settled fact, when inflation remains well above the Fed’s target.

    Good news in US inflation report boosts chances Fed won’t hike rates

    Used byThe Guardian (Left)

See the full language guide

See for yourself

Side by side

What each side leads with and what it leaves out. Open a side to read its headlines.

From the left

4 outlets

Leads with

  • trader reaction and rate-hike odds
  • political stakes ahead of midterms
  • consumer spending trends
  • uncertainty from BEA methodology changes

Leaves out

  • specific forecast figures for core PCE (3.3%) in some reports

Reported by other sides, not found in this side’s coverage.

See the 4 headlines from the leftHide the headlines

From the center

4 outlets

Leads with

  • comparison to economists’ forecasts
  • implications for Fed rate decisions
  • data details (headline vs. core PCE)

Leaves out

  • political or midterm election context
  • BEA methodology revision uncertainty

Reported by other sides, not found in this side’s coverage.

See the 4 headlines from the centerHide the headlines

From the right

5 outlets

Leads with

  • inflation reading below expectations
  • reduced pressure on Fed to raise rates
  • likely delay of next rate hike to December

Leaves out

  • political stakes tied to midterm elections
  • consumer spending increase despite elevated prices

Reported by other sides, not found in this side’s coverage.

See the 5 headlines from the rightHide the headlines
  • New York PostRight

    Fed’s preferred inflation gauge cooler than expected, likely delaying rate hike to December

    The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge in August came in cooler than expected -- likely delaying another interest-rate hike until December.

    Read at New York Post (opens in a new tab)
  • Breitbart NewsFar Right

    Fed's Preferred Inflation Measure Comes in Sensational language“Much Lower Than Expected”The actual gap between the forecast (0.4%/3.7%) and the reported figures (0.3%/3.4%) is modest, so characterizing it as ‘much’ lower overstates the size of the difference.More neutral: Lower Than ExpectedDisagree with this highlight?

    The Fed's preferred measure of inflation rose by much less than expected in August, data from the Commerce Department showed Friday.

    Read at Breitbart News (opens in a new tab)
  • The Epoch TimesFar Right

    Fed’s Preferred Inflation Measure Less Than Expected in August

    Stripping out food and energy, the central bank's go-to inflation yardstick remains tamer.

    Read at The Epoch Times (opens in a new tab)
  • The Washington TimesRight

    Key inflation reading comes in cooler than expected, easing pressure on Fed and Trump

    The government said Wednesday that a key index of what Americans pay for goods and services came in lower than expected for August, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

    Read at The Washington Times (opens in a new tab)
  • Just the NewsFar Right

    Key inflation gauge shows consumer prices increased 0.3% from July to August, less than expected

    Excluding food and energy, the Personal Consumption Index increased 0.2%.

    Read at Just the News (opens in a new tab)

Articles you open from here build My Mix, a private picture of how your reading spreads across the spectrum, kept on this device. What is My Mix?

The left is Far Left and Left together. The right is Right and Far Right together. Every outlet keeps its own five-point rating.

Who reported it when

How the coverage built up

  • Left

    First to report

    Bloomberg, Sep 28, 6:00 AM EDT

  • Center

    1 day 9 hr later

    Its first report, Sep 29, 3:07 PM EDT

  • Right

    2 days 3 hr later

    Its first report, Sep 30, 9:37 AM EDT

See the order the outlets reported inHide the order
  1. BloombergLeftSep 28, 6:00 AM EDT
  2. CNBCCenterSep 29, 3:07 PM EDT
  3. The HillCenterSep 30, 8:42 AM EDT
  4. ABC NewsLeftSep 30, 8:57 AM EDT
  5. The New York TimesLeftSep 30, 9:09 AM EDT
  6. The Washington TimesRightSep 30, 9:37 AM EDT
  7. The Epoch TimesFar RightSep 30, 9:37 AM EDT
  8. Breitbart NewsFar RightSep 30, 9:39 AM EDT
  9. Financial TimesCenterSep 30, 10:24 AM EDT
  10. The GuardianLeftSep 30, 11:34 AM EDT
  11. New York PostRightSep 30, 11:49 AM EDT
  12. Straight Arrow NewsCenterSep 30, 2:31 PM EDT

Times are the ones the outlets published in their own feeds, in Eastern time. Opinion is left out. Just the News gave only a date, so it is not placed.

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